Impacto de vieses na acurácia dos analistas: uma análise baseada em cluster
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14392/asaa.2025180102Palavras-chave:
Acurácia dos analistas, Vieses comportamentais, ClusterResumo
Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivo examinar o impacto dos vieses na acurácia de analistas financeiros, observando maior e menor acurácia, utilizando clusters.
Método: A pesquisa considerou empresas de capital aberto no Brasil e nos EUA nos trimestres de 2019, totalizando 840 observações de 76 empresas brasileiras e 16.402 observações de 880 empresas americanas. Investigamos os seguintes vieses: ancoragem, otimismo, excesso de confiança, viés comunal, representatividade e realismo, obtidos via Diction®. Utilizamos os softwares STATA® e SPSS® para análise de variância (ANOVA) e o teste post-hoc da ANOVA, além da técnica de análise de cluster e regressão múltipla.
Resultados: Identificamos que o viés de ancoragem, relacionado ao uso do lucro passado como âncora para previsões futuras, foi o único com comportamento semelhante entre os grupos de menor e maior acurácia e entre os países. Isso sugere que o efeito estocástico do lucro passado é positivo na previsão de lucro. Nos EUA, os vieses têm maior presença na relação com a acurácia dos analistas, em comparação com o Brasil. No grupo de maior acurácia nos EUA, destacam-se o excesso de confiança e o realismo. No Brasil, o único resultado significativo indica que os analistas no grupo de maior acurácia têm efeito negativo do otimismo em suas previsões. O viés da comunalidade tem um efeito negativo na acurácia dos analistas dos EUA, independentemente do grupo de acurácia. O viés da representatividade também afeta negativamente a acurácia dos analistas nos grupos de menor acurácia nos EUA.
Contribuições: A pesquisa sinaliza aos investidores a importância de observarem os vieses ao escolher quais analistas seguir para investimentos mais eficientes. Analistas com excesso de confiança e realismo nos EUA são recomendados, enquanto aqueles com viés otimista no Brasil e comunalidade/representatividade nos EUA devem ser observados com prudência.
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